Top 5 States People are Moving to Live:

Oregon was the top moving destination in 2015 for the third year in a row, according to a study of 123,000 moves from United Van Lines. Almost 70% of the interstate moves in Oregon were people moving to the state.

The number of people moving to Oregon has increased by 10% in the past six years.

“We are seeing people drawn for lifestyle issues: more green space and looking for a lower cost of living,” said Melissa Sullivan, director, marketing communications at UniGroup, which operates United Van Lines.

The South was also a popular moving destination last year, with South Carolina ranking second.

“As Baby Boomers get closer to retirement age, we are seeing people move out of colder climates and into places with warmer weather,” Sullivan said.

Who are the losers? Some states in the Northeast are having a hard time hanging onto their residents. New Jersey saw the highest number of moves out of the state last year, followed by New York.

Here are the top 10 inbound states for 2015, according to United Van Lines:

1. Oregon
2. South Carolina
3. Vermont
4. Idaho
5. North Carolina
6. Florida
7. Nevada
8. District of Columbia
9. Texas
10. Washington

Here are the top 10 outbound states for 2015:

1. New Jersey
2. New York
3. Illinois
4. Connecticut
5. Ohio
6. Kansas
7. Massachusetts
8. West Virginia
9. Mississippi
10. Maryland

What Happened to Rates Last Week?

Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 3.50 MBS) gained +65 basis points (BPS) from last Friday’s close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move lower from the prior week.

It was our first full week of trading in 2016 and it was dominated by weakness out of China and falling oil prices.

The biggest domestic event of the week was Friday’s big jobs report.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: The much anticipated NFP and wage data showed that the number of jobs added was impressive, but we just are not seeing a gain in wages.  The bottom line is that due to the lack of wage inflation, this report has done little to persuade bond traders that a March rate hike is likely.
Tale of the tape:
Non-Farm Payrolls December 292K vs est of 200K.
November was revised upward from 211K to 252K
October was revised upward from 271K to 307K
So, overall – very strong job growth over the past three months.
Unemployment Rate 5.0% vs est of 5.0%.
Labor Force Participation Rate increased from 65.8% to 65.9%
Average Weekly Hours remained stuck at 34.5
Average Hourly Earnings was lighter than expected 0.0% vs est of 2.0%. Many feel that this is too low to justify a rate hike in March.
Year over Year Average Hourly Earnings moved upward from 2.3% to 2.5%

China: We had a very turbulent week for their stock market with circuit breakers being tripped, then removed, then the government stepped in and directly bought stocks, threatened to jail major traders that sold off, and allowed their Yuan (currency) to devalue against our dollar.  This caused a lot of money to flow into the waiting arms of the U.S. and found its way into our bonds which was a very large factor in boosting demand and pushed our rates lower.

Oil: Prices fell to 11 year lows last week amid a glut of supply and a perceived slowdown in future demand out of China due to their manufacturing economy slowing down.  Saudi Arabia refused to lower their production and Iran is getting ready to come online with their new supply.  These are just a few of the factors that have kept steady pressure on oil prices which means that U.S. will not see any price inflation for a long time and that is always bond friendly.