New Home Sales Best In Over Two Years
New U.S. single-family home sales surged in September to the highest level in nearly 2-1/2 years, further evidence the housing market recovery is gaining steam.
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that new home sales increased 5.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted 389,000-unit annual rate — the fastest pace since April 2010, when sales were boosted by a tax credit for first-time home buyers.
The median price of a new home jumped 11.7 percent from a year ago.
In a separate report, the National Association of Realtors said that Pending Home Sales increased by 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and jumped 14.5 percent from a year ago.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +7 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which caused 30 year fixed mortgage rates to move sideways. We had our highest mortgage rates on Thursday and our lowest rates on Tuesday.
On the U.S. economic front, 3rd QTR GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and New Home Sales were released and came in a little better than expected. The Consumer Sentiment Index and Pending Home Sales but were lighter than market expectations but were still at very good levels. Overall, the economic data was positive and pressured mortgage backed securities.
However, MBS were trapped in a very narrow trading channel which had very strong support at our 50 day moving average and some decent resistance at our 10 day moving average. This caused MBS to move sideways.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
|Date||ET||Economic Release||Actual||Market Expects||Prior|
|29-Oct||8:30 AM||Personal Income||–||0.60%||0.10%|
|29-Oct||8:30 AM||Personal Spending||–||0.40%||0.50%|
|29-Oct||8:30 AM||PCE Prices – Core||–||0.10%||0.10%|
|30-Oct||9:00 AM||Case-Shiller 20-city Index||–||1.70%||1.20%|
|30-Oct||10:00 AM||Consumer Confidence||–||72.5||70.3|
|31-Oct||7:00 AM||MBA Mortgage Index||–||NA||-12.00%|
|31-Oct||8:15 AM||ADP Employment Change||–||140K||162K|
|31-Oct||8:30 AM||Employment Cost Index||–||0.50%||0.50%|
|31-Oct||9:45 AM||Chicago PMI||–||50.4||49.7|
|31-Oct||10:30 AM||Crude Inventories||–||NA||5.896M|
|1-Nov||7:30 AM||Challenger Job Cuts||–||NA||-70.80%|
|1-Nov||8:30 AM||Initial Claims||–||375K||369K|
|1-Nov||8:30 AM||Continuing Claims||–||3249K||3254K|
|1-Nov||8:30 AM||Unit Labor Costs||–||1.10%||1.50%|
|1-Nov||10:00 AM||ISM Index||–||51||51.5|
|1-Nov||10:00 AM||Construction Spending||–||0.80%||-0.60%|
|1-Nov||2:00 PM||Auto Sales||–||NA||5.3M|
|1-Nov||2:00 PM||Truck Sales||–||NA||6.3M|
|2-Nov||8:30 AM||Nonfarm Payrolls||–||125K||114K|
|2-Nov||8:30 AM||Nonfarm Private Payrolls||–||125K||104K|
|2-Nov||8:30 AM||Unemployment Rate||–||7.90%||7.80%|
|2-Nov||8:30 AM||Hourly Earnings||–||0.20%||0.30%|
|2-Nov||8:30 AM||Average Workweek||–||34.5||34.5|
|2-Nov||10:00 AM||Factory Orders||–||4.50%||-5.20%|
I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.