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Brent Rasmussen
President
Office: 800-519-1870
Cell: 402-578-0008
brent@mtg-specialists.com
8420 W Dodge Rd, Ste 113
Omaha, NE 68114
www.mtg-specialists.com
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Posts Tagged ‘MBS’
Monday, August 15th, 2011
U.S. retail sales in July posted their biggest gain since March, tempering fears that the world’s largest economy might be slipping back into recession.
Sales climbed 0.5 percent, in line with analyst forecasts and following an upwardly revised 0.3 percent gain in June.
Consumer spending accounts for two thirds of U.S. economic activity, and the Commerce Department data released on Friday indicates the third quarter was off to a decent start.
Excluding autos, sales increased 0.5 percent, well above forecasts for a 0.2 percent gain. The figures were bolstered by a 1.6 percent jump in gasoline station sales, in part reflecting the higher cost of fuel.
Consumer spending is vital to the housing market. Any improvement in consumer behavior and their willingness to make purchases is welcome news to the housing industry as it often translates into more demand for housing.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +168 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates lower from last Friday to the prior Friday. We closed at our best levels of 2011. The gains were primarily due to very strong demand for our 10 year Treasury auction and the much weaker than expected economic news as well as continued concern over weakness in Europe.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
| 15-Aug |
8:30 |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
|
| 15-Aug |
9:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC Flows |
|
| 15-Aug |
9:00 |
Total Net TIC Flows |
|
| 15-Aug |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
|
| 16-Aug |
8:30 |
Building Permits (MoM) |
|
| 16-Aug |
8:30 |
Housing Starts (MoM) |
|
| 16-Aug |
8:30 |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 16-Aug |
8:30 |
Import Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 16-Aug |
9:15 |
Capacity Utilization |
|
| 16-Aug |
9:15 |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
|
| 17-Aug |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 17-Aug |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 17-Aug |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 17-Aug |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) |
|
| 17-Aug |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) |
|
| 17-Aug |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 18-Aug |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 18-Aug |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 18-Aug |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) |
|
| 18-Aug |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) |
|
| 18-Aug |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 18-Aug |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 18-Aug |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales (MoM) |
|
| 18-Aug |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales Change |
|
| 18-Aug |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators (MoM) |
|
| 18-Aug |
10:00 |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey |
|
Tags: MBS, NE, Nebraska, Retail
Posted in Mortgage backed securities | No Comments »
Tuesday, July 5th, 2011
Rebound in May, Up 8.2%
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index increased 8.2 percent to 88.8, bouncing back from April’s seven-month low. Pending homes sales lead existing homes sales by a month or two.
Economists had expected home resale contracts to rise only 3.8 percent after a previously reported 11.6 percent drop. Pending home sales increased in all four regions, with the Midwest and West notching double-digit gains.
In the 12 months to May, pending home sales rose 13.4 percent.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -172 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates much higher from last Friday to the prior Friday. Traders dumped MBS and Treasuries as the massive Quantitative Easing (QE II) program ended which removed the single largest purchaser of U.S. Treasuries from the market place. MBS also sold off on the much stronger than expected economic news. We saw some good growth in the Chicago PMI and the ISM Manufacturing data, both measure true economic expansion by monitoring our manufacturing sector. We also got a very nice surprise with the Pending Home Sales data.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
| 5-July |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
|
| 6-July |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 6-July |
10:00 |
ISM Non-Manufacturing |
|
| 7-July |
8:15 |
ADP Employment Change |
|
| 7-July |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 7-July |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 7-July |
11:00 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 8-July |
8:30 |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
|
| 8-July |
8:30 |
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) |
|
| 8-July |
8:30 |
Average Weekly Hours |
|
| 8-July |
8:30 |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
|
| 8-July |
8:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
|
| 8-July |
10:00 |
Wholesale Inventories |
|
| 8-July |
15:00 |
Consumer Credit Change |
|
Tags: Homes, MBS, NE
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, June 27th, 2011
Average New Home Price Also Increases, Inventory Decreases.
Sales of new U.S. single family homes fell for the first time in three months in May, but inventories of new homes for sale reached record lows and the median sales price rose slightly, a government report showed on Thursday.
The Commerce Department said May new home sales fell 2.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 319,000. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting a slightly slower pace of 310,000 for the month.
May’s new home sales were 13.5 percent above the May 2010 level.
The Commerce Department report showed that the median new home sales price rose to $222,600 in May from $217,000 in April, marking the first increase since December last year.
U.S. housing starts rose more than expected and permits for future construction touched a five month high in May, a government report showed on Thursday.
The Commerce Department said housing starts rose 3.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000 units, retracing almost half of April’s steep decline. April’s starts were revised up to a 541,000 unit pace, which was previously reported as a 523,000 unit rate.
At May’s sales pace, the supply of homes on the market dropped to 6.2 months’ worth, the lowest since April 2010.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +59 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates lower from last Friday to the prior Friday. But it was a wild ride with MBS selling off and mortgage rates rising in the beginning of the week and then MBS reversed course for some big gains after the Federal Reserve lowered their economic growth forecasts and amid continued concerns that Greece would not be able to pay off their debt (even with bailout).
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
| 27-June |
8:30 |
Core PCE (MoM) |
|
| 27-June |
8:30 |
Core PCE (YoY) |
|
| 27-June |
8:30 |
PCE (YoY) |
|
| 27-June |
8:30 |
PCE (MoM) |
|
| 27-June |
8:30 |
Personal Income (MoM) |
|
| 28-June |
9:00 |
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) |
|
| 28-June |
10:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
|
| 28-June |
10:00 |
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
|
| 28-June |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 29-June |
10:00 |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
|
| 29-June |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 29-June |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 30-June |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 30-June |
9:45 |
Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index |
|
| 30-June |
9:45 |
Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
|
| 1-July |
10:00 |
Construction Spending (MoM) |
|
| 1-July |
10:00 |
ISM Manufacturing |
|
| 1-July |
10:00 |
ISM Prices Paid |
|
| 1-July |
17:00 |
Total Vehicle Sales |
|
Tags: Home, MBS, NE, Omaha
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, June 13th, 2011
Every week it seems mortgage rates inch down – but is the ride nearing the end?
One of the main reasons why mortgage rates have been so low is due to the Quantitative Easing II program. This is where the Federal Reserve Bank of New York purchases U.S. Treasury debt each business day. This massive program will end at the end of June and has kept the demand for U.S. treasuries higher than it would normally be and as a result has kept all interest rates lower than normal. So what will happen to demand for treasuries once the largest single buyer of our debt leaves the market?
U.S. banks have also been a very large purchaser of treasuries but some of Wall Street’s biggest banks are preparing to cut their use of U.S. treasuries in August as a precaution against any turbulence that could follow if warring Republicans and Democrats fail to increase the U.S. debt ceiling, a senior bank chief said.
One strategy, which bank executives only agreed to discuss without attribution due to the political sensitivities related to discussing Treasury debt, is to have more cash on hand to put up as collateral against derivatives and other transactions, decreasing the financial system’s reliance on treasuries.
“We’re planning to lower our reliance on the use of treasuries in early August and have more cash on hand as a contingency measure,” said a U.S. bank chief.
Investors worldwide own large amounts of the $9.7 trillion of debt that has been sold by the US government as part of their portfolios. But nearly 40 per cent of the existing U.S. Treasury debt – about $4 trillion – is used to back deals in the repurchase, futures and swaps markets, say JPMorgan Chase estimates.
It is this key role that treasuries play as collateral for the wider financial system where turmoil could follow any missed payment resulting from the debt ceiling fight. The top quality and liquidity of Treasury debt means it can be used to back transactions relatively cheaply, with banks or clearing houses only requiring a small “haircut” or discount on the value of the debt to reflect credit risks.
Without the Federal Reserve buying treasuries and with banks curbing their purchases as well – it could lead to higher rates.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -19 basis points last week which caused 30 year fixed rates to rise for the first time in three weeks.
Mortgage backed securities rose (mortgage rates got lower) on Tuesday and Wednesday on the back of some very strong demand for the 3 year and 10 year U.S. Treasury auctions. But mortgage backed securities reversed course and mortgage rates began to rise Thursday afternoon after the weaker than expected 30 year U.S. Treasury bond auction results were released.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
| 14-June |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 14-June |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 14-June |
8:30 |
PPI Ex Energy (MoM) |
|
| 14-June |
8:30 |
PPI Ex Enery (YoY) |
|
| 14-June |
8:30 |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
| 14-June |
8:30 |
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) |
|
| 14-June |
10:00 |
Business Inventories |
|
| 15-June |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 15-June |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 15-June |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 15-June |
8:30 |
CPI Ex Energy (MoM) |
|
| 15-June |
8:30 |
CPI Ex Enery (YoY) |
|
| 15-June |
8:30 |
NY Empire Mfg Index |
|
| 15-June |
9:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC Flows |
|
| 15-June |
9:00 |
Total Net TIC Flows |
|
| 15-June |
9:15 |
Capacity Utilization |
|
| 15-June |
9:15 |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
|
| 15-June |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
|
| 15-June |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 16-June |
8:30 |
Building Permits (MoM) |
|
| 16-June |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 16-June |
8:30 |
Current Account |
|
| 16-June |
8:30 |
Housing Starts (MoM) |
|
| 16-June |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 16-June |
10:00 |
Philly Fed Mfg Survey |
|
| 17-June |
9:55 |
U of M Cons. Sent. Index |
|
| 17-June |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators (MoM) |
|
Tags: MBS, Mortgage, Omaha
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, May 23rd, 2011
Foreclosure activity decreased in April for the seventh straight month, bringing total foreclosure activity to a 40-month low, according to a new report from RealtyTrac.
“This slowdown continues to be largely the result of massive delays in processing foreclosures, rather than the result of a housing recovery that is lifting people out of foreclosure,” notes RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio in a statement.
Certainly there are more foreclosures on the horizon, but this legal bottleneck will be around for awhile. This means that a massive wave of additional inventory will not be hitting the markets during the peak purchasing season. Inventory levels are the key to home prices and any stabilization in those inventory levels regardless of the reason is welcome news to the housing industry even if it is only temporary.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) barely moved and lost only -3 basis points last week which helped to keep 30 year fixed rates at fantastic levels. Mortgage rates continue to enjoy artificial support due to weakness in Europe – particularly with Greece and Portugal. Concerns over their massive debt restructuring has investors very concerned about the stability overseas and as a result they continue to purchase U.S. Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities which help to keep our rates low due to the extra demand.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
| 24-May |
10:00 |
New Home Sales |
Apr |
| 25-May |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
20-May |
| 25-May |
8:30 |
Durable Orders |
Apr |
| 25-May |
8:30 |
Durable Orders -ex Transportation |
Apr |
| 25-May |
10:00 |
FHFA Housing Price Index |
Mar |
| 25-May |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
21-May |
| 26-May |
8:30 |
GDP – Second Estimate |
Q1 |
| 26-May |
8:30 |
GDP Deflator – Second Estimate |
Q1 |
| 26-May |
8:30 |
Initial Claims |
21-May |
| 26-May |
8:30 |
Continuing Claims |
14-May |
| 27-May |
8:30 |
Personal Income |
Apr |
| 27-May |
8:30 |
Personal Spending |
Apr |
| 27-May |
8:30 |
PCE Prices – Core |
Apr |
| 27-May |
9:55 |
Michigan Sentiment – Final |
May |
| 27-May |
10:00 |
Pending Home Sales |
Mar |
Tags: Foreclosures, MBS, Mortgage, NE, Omaha
Posted in Foreclosure, Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, May 16th, 2011
Consumer Sentiment climbed more than forecast in May as Americans turned more hopeful that employment gains will be sustained, helping them cope with higher fuel and food costs.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 72.4, a three-month high, from a final reading of 69.8 in April, the group reported today.
This is another positive for the housing market. As consumers feel more confident about the economy, they are more likely to pull the trigger on that next home.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -25 basis points last week which helped to push 30 year fixed rates higher. Mortgage rates were still very low but moved up from the best levels of 2011 which occurred two Friday’s ago.
Mortgage rates felt pressure from economic data that showed some inflationary pressure (which mortgage backed securities do not like). We saw increases in the Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, and Consumer Sentiment. We also had a much weaker than expected 30 year Treasury bond auction that put pressure on rates.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
| 16-May |
8:30 |
Empire Manufacturing |
May |
| 16-May |
9:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC Flows |
Mar |
| 16-May |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
May |
| 17-May |
8:30 |
Housing Starts |
Apr |
| 17-May |
8:30 |
Building Permits |
Apr |
| 17-May |
9:15 |
Industrial Production |
Apr |
| 17-May |
9:15 |
Capacity Utilization |
Apr |
| 18-May |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
13-May |
| 18-May |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
14-May |
| 18-May |
14:00 |
FOMC Minutes |
May |
| 19-May |
8:30 |
Initial Claims |
14-May |
| 19-May |
8:30 |
Continuing Claims |
7-May |
| 19-May |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales |
Apr |
| 19-May |
10:00 |
Philadelphia Fed |
May |
| 19-May |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators |
Apr |
Tags: employment, MBS, Omaha
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, May 2nd, 2011
More Americans signed contracts to buy homes in March.
Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose more than expected in March, as sales agreements for homes rose 5.1 percent last month to a reading of 94.1, according to the National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index. Sales rose in every region but the Northeast.
Signings are more than 20 percent above June’s index reading, the low point since the housing bust. Still, the index is below 100, which is considered a healthy level.
Contract signings are usually a good indicator of where the housing market is heading. That’s because there’s usually a one- to two-month lag between a sales contract and a completed deal.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +78 basis points last week which helped to push 30 year fixed rates to close at their second lowest levels in 2011. U.S. Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities experienced strong demand on very tame inflationary data (Gross Domestic Product and Personal Consumption Expenditures) and comments made by Ben Bernanke and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee that they would keep rates low for an “extended period of time”.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
| 2-May |
10:00 |
Construction Spending |
Mar |
| 2-May |
10:00 |
ISM Index |
Apr |
| 2-May |
15:00 |
Auto Sales |
May |
| 2-May |
15:00 |
Truck Sales |
May |
| 3-May |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
Mar |
| 4-May |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
29-Apr |
| 4-May |
7:30 |
Challenger Job Cuts |
Apr |
| 4-May |
8:15 |
ADP Employment Change |
Apr |
| 4-May |
10:00 |
ISM Services |
Apr |
| 4-May |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
30-Apr |
| 5-May |
8:30 |
Initial Claims |
30-Apr |
| 5-May |
8:30 |
Continuing Claims |
23-Apr |
| 5-May |
8:30 |
Productivity-Prel |
Q1 |
| 5-May |
8:30 |
Unit Labor Costs |
Q1 |
| 6-May |
8:30 |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
Apr |
| 6-May |
8:30 |
Nonfarm Private Payrolls |
Apr |
| 6-May |
8:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
Apr |
| 6-May |
8:30 |
Hourly Earnings |
Apr |
| 6-May |
8:30 |
Average Workweek |
Apr |
| 6-May |
15:00 |
Consumer Credit |
Mar |
Tags: Home Real Estate, MBS, NE, Omaha
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, April 25th, 2011
Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose more than expected in March, suggesting the housing market’s downward trend may be close to hitting a bottom.
The National Association of Realtors said sales rose 3.7 percent month over month to an annual rate of 5.10 million units after an upwardly revised 4.92 million unit pace in February.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected sales to rise 2.5 percent to a 5.0 million-unit pace from the previously reported 4.88 million unit rate. Sales have now risen in six of the past eight months.
The median home price fell 5.9 percent in March from a year earlier to $159,600 which shows that the spike in demand for homes is mostly driven by the lower end of the price spectrum as new home buyers are finally entering the market.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +16 basis points week over week. But the real story is the activity during last week. As MBS lost -25 basis points from Monday’s highs to Thursday’s close (market was closed on Friday). This caused 30 year fixed mortgage rates to increase throughout the week as traders were unwilling to purchase MBS at the 100 day moving average. MBS also reacted to the stronger than expected Building Starts, Building Permits, Existing Home Sales, and the Leading Indicators.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
| 25-Apr |
10:00 |
New Home Sales |
Mar |
| 26-Apr |
9:00 |
Case-Shiller 20-city Index |
Feb |
| 26-Apr |
10:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
Apr |
| 27-Apr |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
22-Apr |
| 27-Apr |
8:30 |
Durable Orders |
Mar |
| 27-Apr |
8:30 |
Durable Orders -ex Transportation |
Mar |
| 27-Apr |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
23-Apr |
| 27-Apr |
12:30 |
FOMC Rate Decision |
Apr |
| 28-Apr |
8:30 |
GDP-Adv. |
Q1 |
| 28-Apr |
8:30 |
GDP Deflator |
Q1 |
| 28-Apr |
8:30 |
Initial Claims |
23-Apr |
| 28-Apr |
8:30 |
Continuing Claims |
16-Apr |
| 28-Apr |
10:00 |
Pending Home Sales |
Mar |
| 29-Apr |
8:30 |
Personal Income |
Mar |
| 29-Apr |
8:30 |
Personal Spending |
Mar |
| 29-Apr |
8:30 |
PCE Prices – Core |
Mar |
| 29-Apr |
8:30 |
Employment Cost Index |
Q1 |
| 29-Apr |
9:45 |
Chicago PMI |
Apr |
| 29-Apr |
9:55 |
Michigan Sentiment – Final |
Apr |
Tags: Homes, MBS, NAR
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, April 18th, 2011
U.S. foreclosure filings fell in the first quarter to the lowest level since early 2008 amid an ongoing backlog following last year’s halt in activity, according to a RealtyTrac report on Thursday.
Default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions were reported on 681,153 properties, down 14.8 percent from the previous quarter and a drop of 26.9 percent from the first quarter of 2010.
It was the lowest level of foreclosures since the first quarter of 2008.
Nevada maintained the highest U.S. state foreclosure rate as one in every 35 homes had a foreclosure filing. California alone accounted for nearly a quarter of overall foreclosure activity.
Foreclosures add supply to a housing market that already has too much inventory available which helps to keep home prices down. But with very strong home sales over the past quarter and reduced foreclosures, the table is set for home prices to stabilize.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +90BPS last week which pushed 30 year fixed rates downward. We had a very volatile week where we saw rates increase as well as decrease. Most of our gains occurred on Friday on the weaker than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. CPI is a measure of inflation and mortgage rates react very closely to inflationary news. However, the longer term trend is still pointing towards higher mortgage rates as the very closely watched 100 day moving moving average continues its march towards higher pricing.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
| 18-Apr |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
Apr |
| 19-Apr |
8:30 |
Housing Starts |
Mar |
| 19-Apr |
8:30 |
Building Permits |
Mar |
| 20-Apr |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Purchase Index |
15-Apr |
| 20-Apr |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales |
Mar |
| 20-Apr |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
16-Apr |
| 21-Apr |
8:30 |
Initial Claims |
16-Apr |
| 21-Apr |
8:30 |
Continuing Claims |
16-Apr |
| 21-Apr |
10:00 |
Philadelphia Fed |
Apr |
| 21-Apr |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators |
Mar |
| 21-Apr |
10:00 |
FHFA Housing Price Index |
Feb |
Tags: Foreclosures, Home Sales, MBS
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, March 21st, 2011
Despite a historic real-estate market upheaval that sent foreclosure rates skyrocketing and home values plummeting, Americans still have a deep attachment to homeownership. Furthermore, they consider homeownership an integral part of an American Dream in which they still believe, according to poll results announced today by The Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) and National Journal.
The eighth quarterly Allstate-National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll revealed that nearly nine out of 10 homeowners say they would buy their homes again. That percentage held true even among homeowners who said their home values had declined. Seven of 10 Americans say they would advise a friend or family member to buy a home as a long-term asset. However, while homeownership is perceived as a good personal decision, there is much greater uncertainty about whether expanding homeownership should be a government priority.
Although only 35% of respondents expect their personal financial situations to improve over the next year, three-fourths of those surveyed said it is still possible for people like them to achieve the American Dream, which the poll defined as the ability to advance as far as their talents will take them and live better than their parents did. A total of 59% said they currently are living the American Dream. Respondents identified owning your own home as one of the most critical parts of the American Dream, second only to raising a family.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +53 basis points from Monday’s open to Friday’s close which helped to move mortgage rates down slightly. Mortgage Backed Securities shrugged off numerous economic reports that showed growth in the U.S. (which normally hurts mortgage rates) as international investors poured money in our system due to the continued global concern over the events in Japan.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
| 21-Mar |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales |
Feb |
| 22-Mar |
10:00 |
FHFA Housing Price Index |
Jan |
| 23-Mar |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Index |
18-Mar |
| 23-Mar |
10:00 |
New Home Sales |
Feb |
| 23-Mar |
10:30 |
Crude Inventories |
19-Mar |
| 24-Mar |
8:30 |
Initial Claims |
19-Mar |
| 24-Mar |
8:30 |
Continuing Claims |
19-Mar |
| 24-Mar |
8:30 |
Durable Orders |
Feb |
| 24-Mar |
8:30 |
Durable Orders ex Transportation |
Feb |
| 25-Mar |
8:30 |
GDP – Third Estimate |
Q4 |
| 25-Mar |
8:30 |
GDP Deflator – Third Estimate |
Q4 |
| 25-Mar |
9:55 |
Michigan Sentiment – Final |
Mar |
Tags: foreclosure, homeowner, MBS
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
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