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Brent Rasmussen
President
Office: 800-519-1870
Cell: 402-578-0008
brent@mtg-specialists.com
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Omaha, NE 68114
www.mtg-specialists.com
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Archive for the ‘Market Update’ Category
Monday, October 3rd, 2011
Pending Home Sales are homes that have a purchase contract in place but have not yet closed. The National Association of Realtors released their data for August and it showed a year-over-year annual improvement of 13.1%.
When comparing August to July, pending home sales slipped but less than market forecasts. Economists expected Pending Home Sales to decrease month-over-month by -1.8%. The actual number was a little better at -1.2%. Hurricane Irene, which battered the Northeast at the end of the month, was likely a factor in the decline.
Three of four regions throughout the United States saw declines in the number of contracts to purchase previously owned homes. The Northeast region experienced the largest loss of 5.8 percent as a result of significant disruption by Hurricane Irene, according to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. Meanwhile, sales in Midwest and West also fell 3.7 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively. In contrast, a 2.6 percent gain in the South helped reduce the total loss of pending home sales in the month.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) were unchanged from last Friday to the prior Friday but we stilled closed down -100 basis points from our best pricing levels in history on 09/22/11.
We had a very volatile week where mortgage rates escalated Monday through Wednesday and then rebounded by Friday.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
|
| 3-Oct |
10:00 |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
|
| 3-Oct |
10:00 |
Construction Spending |
|
| 3-Oct |
6:00 |
Fed’s Lackert Speaks |
|
| 4-Oct |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
|
| 4-Oct |
10:00 |
Bernake Speaks |
|
| 5-Oct |
7:30 |
Challenger Job Cuts |
|
| 5-Oct |
8:15 |
ADP Private Payroll Report |
|
| 5-Oct |
10:00 |
ISM Servicing Index |
|
| 6-Oct |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 6-Oct |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 7-Oct |
8:30 |
Non-Farm Payrolls |
|
| 7-Oct |
8:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
|
| 7-Oct |
10:00 |
Wholesale Inventories |
|
| 7-Oct |
3:00 |
Consumer Credit |
|
Tags: Home, NE, Omaha, Sales
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, September 26th, 2011
Existing-home sales increased in August, even with ongoing tight credit and appraisal problems, along with regional disruptions created by Hurricane Irene, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Monthly gains were seen in all regions.
Total Existing Home Sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 7.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.03 million in August from an upwardly revised 4.67 million in July, and are 18.6 percent higher than the 4.24 million unit level in August 2010.
Investors accounted for 22 percent of purchase activity in August, up from 18 percent in July and 21 percent in August 2010. First-time buyers purchased 32 percent of homes in August, unchanged from July; they were 31 percent in August 2010.
All-cash sales accounted for 29 percent of transactions in August, unchanged from July; they were 28 percent in August 2010; investors account for the bulk of cash purchases.
Total housing inventory at the end of August fell 3.0 percent to 3.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.5-month supply in July.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained 178 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates much lower from last Friday to the prior Friday. Mortgage rates moved lower in response to the Fed’s announcement that they would move from purchasing shorter term Treasuries to buying longer term Treasuries. They also announced that they would purchase more mortgage backed securities with the principal that they are receiving on their current mortgage backed security holdings. The best interest rates were on Thursday afternoon. On Friday, mortgage rates started to climb back up from their lows.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
|
| 26-Sept |
10:00 |
New Home Sales (MoM) |
|
| 26-Sept |
10:00 |
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) |
|
| 27-Sept |
9:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
|
| 27-Sept |
10:00 |
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
|
| 27-Sept |
10:00 |
Fed’s Lockhart speech |
|
| 27-Sept |
12:30 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 28-Sept |
7:00 |
Durable Goods Orders |
|
| 28-Sept |
8:30 |
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation |
|
| 28-Sept |
8:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 28-Sept |
10:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 29-Sept |
8:30 |
Gross Domestic Product Annualized |
|
| 29-Sept |
8:30 |
Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index |
|
| 29-Sept |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 29-Sept |
8:30 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) |
|
| 29-Sept |
8:30 |
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 29-Sept |
10:00 |
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Prices Index (YoY) |
|
| 30-Sept |
8:30 |
Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 30-Sept |
8:30 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures (MoM) |
|
| 30-Sept |
8:30 |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
|
| 30-Sept |
8:30 |
Personal Income (MoM) |
|
| 30-Sept |
8:30 |
Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index |
|
| 30-Sept |
9:45 |
Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
|
| 30-Sept |
9:55 |
Fed’s Bullard speech |
|
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, September 19th, 2011
Confidence among U.S. consumers rose in September from the lowest level since November 2008 as Americans views of current economic conditions improved.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment climbed to 57.8 this month from 55.7 in August. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a reading of 57. The group’s measure of consumer expectations six months from now dropped to the lowest level since May 1980.
The Michigan survey’s index of current conditions, which reflects Americans perceptions of their financial situation and whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items like cars, increased to 74.5 from 68.7 the prior month.
This is very important to the housing industry because it it not interest rates but the consumer’s outlook on the economy that drives demand for housing.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -68 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates higher from last Friday to the prior Friday. Mortgage rates were pressured due to some inflationary economic news. Both the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index showed increases which is inflationary and mortgage rates do not react well to any inflationary data. We also saw better than expected Consumer Sentiment which is also usually bad for mortgage rates.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
|
| 19-Sept |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
|
| 19-Sept |
10:30 |
Barack Obama Press Conference |
|
| 20-Sept |
8:30 |
Building Permits (MoM) |
|
| 20-Sept |
8:30 |
Housing Starts (MoM) |
|
| 21-Sept |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 21-Sept |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales (MoM) |
|
| 21-Sept |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales Change |
|
| 21-Sept |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change |
|
| 22-Sept |
14:15 |
Fed Interest Rate Decision |
|
| 22-Sept |
14:15 |
Fed’s Press Conference |
|
| 22-Sept |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 22-Sept |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 22-Sept |
10:00 |
Housing Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 22-Sept |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators (MoM) |
|
Tags: Finances, Homes, NE, Omaha
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, September 12th, 2011
Home prices are seen ticking up modestly in 2012, according to a Reuters poll released on Friday.
Existing home sales are expected to improve modestly. The forecasts from the poll are consistent with expectations the housing sector will continue to limp along in a weakened state for years to come.
A recovery in the housing market is dependent on improvement in the labor market and broader economy, analysts said.
“One of the big concerns is you’ve got a lot of homes where the mortgage holder is still underwater and most of those homeowners will continue to make payments,” said Brown.
“It gets to be a problem, however, if somebody loses their job, somebody gets sick, there’s a divorce or something where the home has to be sold.”
U.S. home prices — as measured by Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index — will fall 3.8 percent for the year, before stabilizing and gaining 0.8 percent in 2012, according to the median forecast of 22 economists in the Reuters poll taken over the past week.
The expectations were improved from the previous Reuters housing poll in June, which forecast prices would fall 5.0 percent this year and rise just 0.5 percent next year.
The forecasts for the changes in the home price index for this year had a wide range, from a decline of 14.0 percent to a gain of 0.1 percent. The forecasts for 2012 had a smaller gap, from a decline of 6.0 percent to a gain of 4.0 percent.
Of 28 economists polled, 14 said that prices had either already hit bottom this year or would by the fourth quarter. Twelve respondents said prices won’t reach a trough until 2012, while one forecast 2013 and one expected it would take until 2014.
In the third quarter, the pace of existing home sales is expected to come in at a 4.78 million annualized rate and will edge up to 4.95 million in the fourth quarter. Sales of previously owned homes were at an annual rate of 4.67 million units in July, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.
Economists saw the rate of home sales coming in at 5.1 million for both the first and second quarter of next year.
“New foreclosures peaked in 2009, but the inventory of foreclosed homes will decline only slowly,” said David Berson, chief economist at mortgage insurer PMI Group.
Spring buying pushed home prices up for a third straight month in most major U.S. cities in June.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index showed Tuesday that prices increased in June from May in 19 of the 20 cities tracked. Prices rose 3.6 percent in the April-June quarter from the previous quarter. Neither of those numbers is adjusted for seasonal factors.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +15 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates slightly lower from last Friday to the prior Friday. Mortgage rates were pressured mid-week as the Trade Balance and Wholesale Inventory data was better than expected but we rebounded on Friday as the stock market had another triple digit loss amid continued concerns over a potential default by Greece and other European countries.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
|
| 12-Sept |
16:00 |
Fed’s Fisher’s speech |
|
| 13-Sept |
8:30 |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 13-Sept |
8:30 |
Import Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 13-Sept |
10:00 |
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) |
|
| 13-Sept |
14:00 |
Monthly Budget Statement |
|
| 14-Sept |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 14-Sept |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 14-Sept |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 14-Sept |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) |
|
| 14-Sept |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) |
|
| 14-Sept |
8:30 |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
| 14-Sept |
8:30 |
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) |
|
| 14-Sept |
10:00 |
Business Inventories |
|
| 14-Sept |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
Current Account |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
|
| 15-Sept |
9:15 |
Capacity Utilization |
|
| 15-Sept |
9:15 |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
|
| 15-Sept |
10:00 |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey |
|
| 16-Sept |
9:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC Flows |
|
| 16-Sept |
9:00 |
Total Net TIC Flows |
|
| 16-Sept |
9:55 |
Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
|
Tags: homeowner, Homes, Nebraska, Omaha
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Tuesday, September 6th, 2011
Spring buying pushed home prices up for a third straight month in most major U.S. cities in June.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index showed Tuesday that prices increased in June from May in 19 of the 20 cities tracked. Prices rose 3.6 percent in the April-June quarter from the previous quarter. Neither of those numbers is adjusted for seasonal factors.
Chicago, Minneapolis, Washington and Boston posted the biggest monthly increases. Metro areas hit hardest by the housing crisis, including Las Vegas and Phoenix, reported small seasonal increases.
Analysts say home prices have stabilized in coastal cities over the past six months. Seasonally adjusted prices have fallen a modest 1 percent over the past six months, according to the index. That’s less than a third of the decline from the previous six months.
Foreclosures and short sales—when a lender agrees to sell for less than what is owed on a mortgage—made up about 30 percent of all home sales last month, up from about 10 percent in past years. And 1.7 million potential foreclosures are being held up, according to real estate firm CoreLogic, either by backlogged courts or lenders awaiting state and federal probes into troubled foreclosure practices.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +47 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates lower from last Friday to the prior Friday. This more than made up for the prior week’s -40 basis point loss. We actually were on a downward trend for mortgage backed securities (higher mortgage rates) for much of the week after getting much better than expected economic news such as the Chicago PMI, Factory Orders and ISM Manufacturing. But the market reversed course on Friday after the Unemployment report was released. While the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 9.1%, the market reacted very strongly to the data that showed that we created/added exactly zero jobs over the last month. Economists believe that the U.S. needs to add at least 150K new jobs each month to get out of this stand-still.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
|
| 4-Sept |
20:00 |
Labor Day |
|
| 6-Sept |
10:00 |
ISM Non-Manufacturing |
|
| 6-Sept |
13:10 |
Fed’s President of the Minneapolis speech |
|
| 7-Sept |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 7-Sept |
14:00 |
Fed’s Beige Book |
|
| 8-Sept |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 8-Sept |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 8-Sept |
8:30 |
Trade Balance |
|
| 8-Sept |
11:00 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 8-Sept |
13:00 |
Fed’s Bernanke Speech |
|
| 8-Sept |
15:00 |
Consumer Credit Change |
|
| 9-Sept |
10:00 |
Wholesale Inventories |
|
Tags: Homes, Midwest, NE, Omaha
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, August 29th, 2011
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) covers single-family housing, using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The House Price Index is derived from transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
According to FHFA, their national Housing Price Index for purchases rose 0.9% and is the third consecutive month of home price increases and shows that the housing market does have some real fundamental “bright spots”.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -40 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates higher from last Friday to the prior Friday. We had enjoyed a string of four consecutive weeks of mortgage rate declines until last week. Mortgage backed securities pulled back from their highs in reaction to a very good week for the stock market and lower than average demand for our country’s debt in the form of Treasury bond sales.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
| 29-Aug |
8:30 |
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 29-Aug |
8:30 |
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Prices Index (YoY) |
|
| 29-Aug |
8:30 |
Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 29-Aug |
8:30 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures (MoM) |
|
| 29-Aug |
8:30 |
Personal Income (MoM) |
|
| 29-Aug |
10:00 |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
|
| 30-Aug |
9:00 |
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) |
|
| 30-Aug |
10:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
|
| 30-Aug |
14:00 |
FOMC Minutes |
|
| 31-Aug |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 31-Aug |
8:15 |
ADP Employment Change |
|
| 31-Aug |
9:45 |
Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index |
|
| 31-Aug |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
|
| 31-Aug |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 31-Aug |
12:00 |
Fed’s Lockhart Speech |
|
| 1-Sept |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 1-Sept |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 1-Sept |
8:30 |
Nonfarm Productivity |
|
| 1-Sept |
8:30 |
Unit Labor Costs |
|
| 1-Sept |
10:00 |
Construction Spending (MoM) |
|
| 1-Sept |
10:00 |
ISM Manufacturing |
|
| 1-Sept |
10:00 |
ISM Prices Paid |
|
| 1-Sept |
17:00 |
Total Vehicle Sales |
|
| 2-Sept |
8:30 |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
|
| 2-Sept |
8:30 |
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) |
|
| 2-Sept |
8:30 |
Average Weekly Hours |
|
| 2-Sept |
8:30 |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
|
| 2-Sept |
8:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
|
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, August 22nd, 2011
According to William Dudley, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the risk of a double-dip recession is still quite low.
Dudley said that only some of the the restraints on growth, such as high oil prices and Japan’s earthquake in the first half of the year, can be considered temporary.
“The risks have risen a little bit, but I think we very much still expect the economy to recover. We expect … growth to be significantly firmer than it was during the first half of the year,” he said. “But obviously there is some concern.
The central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took the unprecedented step last week of promising to keep interest rates near zero for a set period of time—at least until mid-2013. The Fed also said it was weighing other options to help strengthen a weak recovery.
Dudley said that market interest rates fell after the announcement, “which should help provide some additional support for economic activity and jobs.” The president of the New York Fed has a permanent voting position on the FOMC and plays a prominent role within the U.S. central bank.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +21 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates lower from last Friday to the prior Friday. We did pull back from our our best levels of 2011 which occurred in the middle of the week. The gains were primarily due to much weaker than expected economic news as well as continued concern over weakness in Europe.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
| 23-Aug |
10:00 |
New Home Sales |
|
| 23-Aug |
10:00 |
New Home Sales (MoM) |
|
| 23-Aug |
10:00 |
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
|
| 24-Aug |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 24-Aug |
8:30 |
Durable Goods Orders |
|
| 24-Aug |
8:30 |
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation |
|
| 24-Aug |
10:00 |
Housing Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 24-Aug |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 25-Aug |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 25-Aug |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 26-Aug |
8:30 |
Gross Domestic Product Annualized |
|
| 26-Aug |
8:30 |
Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index |
|
| 26-Aug |
9:55 |
Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
|
| 26-Aug |
10:00 |
Fed’s Bernanke Speech |
|
Tags: Bank, Dudley, FOMC, NE, Omaha
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, August 1st, 2011
The number of contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly rose in June as buyers tried to take advantage of lower prices and borrowing costs.
The 2.4 percent rise in the index of pending home resales followed an 8.2 percent May gain, the National Association of Realtors said in Washington. Economists forecasted a 2 percent drop, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
Pending sales climbed 6.4 percent in the West and 4.4 percent in the South. They fell 3.7 percent in the Midwest and 0.4 percent in the Northeast.
Pending sales track contract signings while previously owned sales reflect the closings a month or two later.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +57 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates lower from last Friday to the prior Friday. We had a very volatile week with some large intra-day swings of 30 and 50 basis points. This “choppiness” was due to the markets focussing on debt restructuring speculation in the U.S. and Europe. We realized most of our pricing gains (rates moved lower) on Friday’s batch of economic news. The second quarter GDP numbers were much weaker than expected as was Consumer Sentiment and the Chicato PMI.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
| 1-Aug |
10:00 |
Construction Spending (MoM) |
|
| 1-Aug |
10:00 |
ISM Manufacturing |
|
| 1-Aug |
10:00 |
ISM Prices Paid |
|
| 2-Aug |
8:30 |
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 2-Aug |
8:30 |
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Prices Index (YoY) |
|
| 2-Aug |
8:30 |
Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 2-Aug |
8:30 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures (MoM) |
|
| 2-Aug |
8:30 |
Personal Income (MoM) |
|
| 2-Aug |
17:00 |
Total Vehicle Sales |
|
| 3-Aug |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 3-Aug |
8:15 |
ADP Employment Change |
|
| 3-Aug |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
|
| 3-Aug |
10:00 |
ISM Non-Manufacturing |
|
| 3-Aug |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 4-Aug |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 4-Aug |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 5-Aug |
8:30 |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
|
| 5-Aug |
8:30 |
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) |
|
| 5-Aug |
8:30 |
Average Weekly Hours |
|
| 5-Aug |
8:30 |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
|
| 5-Aug |
8:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
|
| 5-Aug |
15:00 |
Consumer Credit Change |
|
Tags: Home, Mortgage, Nebraska
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, July 25th, 2011
The National Association of Realtors reported that the June Existing Home Sales dropped a mild -0.8% from May. But there were some bright spots in this report:
Single family home sales actually moved upward slightly at a annualized pace of 4.24 million units. The national median price actually increased +0.6% to $184,600 from a year ago. So, the pace of home sales was off from a year ago – but the average price moved upward.
In a seperate report, the U.S. Commerce Department said that new housing starts rose +14.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 629,000 units which is the best level in six months. Permits issued for future construction rose +2.5%. This data shows that the new construction segment of the market is starting to pick up but at a much needed mild pace. The markets can not handle a large injection of new inventory, so it is welcome news to see slow growth in this sector.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -16 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates higher from last Friday to the prior Friday. We had a very volatile week with some large intra-day swings of 30 and 50 basis points. This “choppiness” was due to the markets focussing on debt restructuring speculation in the U.S. and Europe.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
| 26-July |
9:00 |
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) |
|
| 26-July |
10:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
|
| 26-July |
10:00 |
New Home Sales |
|
| 26-July |
10:00 |
New Home Sales (MoM) |
|
| 26-July |
10:00 |
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
|
| 27-July |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 27-July |
8:30 |
Durable Goods Orders |
|
| 27-July |
8:30 |
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation |
|
| 27-July |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 27-July |
14:00 |
Fed’s Beige Book |
|
| 28-July |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 28-July |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 28-July |
10:00 |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
|
| 29-July |
8:30 |
Gross Domestic Product Annualized |
|
| 29-July |
8:30 |
Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index |
|
| 29-July |
8:30 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) |
|
| 29-July |
9:45 |
Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index |
|
| 29-July |
9:55 |
Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
|
Tags: Homes, Omaha, Prices, Realtors
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, July 11th, 2011
Home Prices Rise Again
CoreLogic’s home price index rose 0.8 percent in May from the month before, though prices were still down 7.4 percent from a year ago.
Excluding distressed sales, prices declined just 0.4 percent year-over-year. Relative strength in the non-distressed market, a slow decline in the number of homes expected to go on the market known as shadow inventory” and stabilization in the amount of underwater homeowners are all positive signs, said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.
“Nonetheless, the fragile economic recovery is still critical to the long-term recovery in the housing market,” Fleming said in a statement.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +78 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates lower from last Friday to the prior Friday. We started the holiday-shortened week adding to our sell off from the prior week as rates header higher on much better than expected ADP Private Payroll data. But we reversed course and made up some lost ground after Friday’s Unemployment Report. The dismal results of that report shocked traders that expected much better results. The very weak Unemployment data crushed the stock markets and made Treasuries and mortgage backed securities the preferred place to invest.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
For |
| 12-July |
8:30 |
Trade Balance |
|
| 12-July |
10:00 |
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) |
|
| 12-July |
14:00 |
FOMC Minutes |
|
| 13-July |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 13-July |
8:30 |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 13-July |
8:30 |
Import Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 13-July |
10:00 |
Fed’s Bernanke testifies |
|
| 13-July |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 13-July |
14:00 |
Monthly Budget Statement |
|
| 14-July |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 14-July |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 14-July |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 14-July |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 14-July |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) |
|
| 14-July |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) |
|
| 14-July |
8:30 |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
| 14-July |
8:30 |
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) |
|
| 14-July |
10:00 |
Business Inventories |
|
| 14-July |
10:00 |
Fed’s Bernanke testifies |
|
| 15-July |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 15-July |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 15-July |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) |
|
| 15-July |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) |
|
| 15-July |
8:30 |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
|
| 15-July |
9:15 |
Capacity Utilization |
|
| 15-July |
9:15 |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
|
| 15-July |
9:55 |
Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
|
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
|
