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Archive for the ‘Market Update’ Category
Monday, November 14th, 2011
Confidence among U.S. consumers rose more than projected in November, offering additional support to the biggest part of the economy. It was the third straight month of increases in consumer sentiment.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment climbed to 64.2 this month, the highest since June, from 60.9 in October. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a reading of 61.5.
U.S. consumers are entering the holiday shopping season with a more optimistic outlook than they had a month ago, largely because of a recent decline in gas prices, according to the widely watched index.
Consumer Sentiment is very key to the housing industry. As consumers feel more confident in their expectations about the economy, they are more likely to finally make the move to purchase their next home.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -54 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which moved mortgage rates higher.
As we have reported for the past several weeks, bonds have been trading in reaction to what has been going on in Europe and have largely ignored the U.S economic data. Last week certainly followed that trend. Bonds (which include mortgage backed securities) sold off (causing rates to rise) as Greece appointed a new Prime Minister and on news reports that the Italian Prime Minister would step down. This helped to remove some uncertainty from the market place and investors removed some funds from the safe-haven of bonds.
On the domestic front, we had a luke-warm 30 year U.S. Treasury auction and Initial Jobless Claims and Consumer Sentiment were much better than expected. These also pressured MBS lower.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
|
| 15-Nov |
8:30 |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
| 15-Nov |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index (MoM) |
| 15-Nov |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index (YoY) |
| 15-Nov |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) |
| 15-Nov |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) |
| 15-Nov |
8:30 |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
| 15-Nov |
8:30 |
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) |
| 15-Nov |
10:00 |
Business Inventories |
| 16-Nov |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
| 16-Nov |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index (MoM) |
| 16-Nov |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index (YoY) |
| 16-Nov |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) |
| 16-Nov |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) |
| 16-Nov |
9:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC Flows |
| 16-Nov |
9:00 |
Total Net TIC Flows |
| 16-Nov |
9:15 |
Capacity Utilization |
| 16-Nov |
9:15 |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
| 16-Nov |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
| 16-Nov |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
| 17-Nov |
8:30 |
Building Permits (MoM) |
| 17-Nov |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
| 17-Nov |
8:30 |
Housing Starts (MoM) |
| 17-Nov |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
| 17-Nov |
10:00 |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey |
| 18-Nov |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators (MoM) |
Tags: Consumers, NE, November, Omaha
Posted in Consumers, Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, November 7th, 2011
We received a couple of reports on employment levels last week. The ADP Private Payroll report continued to show gains in hiring in the private sector. Their monthly gauge came in at 110K which was much better than market expectations of 101K.
In a separate report, the national Unemployment Rate fell from 9.1% to 9.0%. The total non-farm payroll gains were 80K which was below market expectations. However, the prior period was revised upward significantly.
Bright spots: Professional and business services up 562K in 2011. Hotel and restaurants up 344K this year. Health Care up 313K for the year. Retail Trade up 156K this year. And mining jobs are up 152K during the year.
What’s not doing well? Construction, government, financial services, insurance and real estate.
ales of new homes rose in September after four straight monthly declines.
Obviously, housing demand is very closely tied to employment levels. While employment levels still have a long way to go, there is some improvement which is a positive for housing.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +12 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which moved mortgage rates lower. This reversed the recent trend of week after week of higher rates.
We had some decent economic data such as better than expected unemployment levels which would normally drive mortgage rates upward. But fears and concerns over Greece and the European Union caused investors to pour money into bonds which temporarily pushed mortgage rates downward.
Previously, Germany and France had worked out a package deal with the rest of the EU members to bailout Greece. But last week, the Prime Minister of Greece stated that he wanted the Greek citizens to have a vote on if they should accept the bailout. If that did happen, there is no way that the citizens would vote for approval and essentially sink the deal.
Now, we understand that the Prime Minister of Greece has stated that he will step down and that the new government will approve the deal without a public vote. It is amazing how one little country can impact rates so much.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
|
| 7-Nov |
16:00 |
Consumer Credit Change |
|
| 8-Nov |
11:00 |
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) |
|
| 9-Nov |
8:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 9-Nov |
9:30 |
Fed’s Bernanke Speech |
|
| 9-Nov |
11:00 |
Wholesale Inventories |
|
| 9-Nov |
11:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 10-Nov |
9:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 10-Nov |
9:30 |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 10-Nov |
9:30 |
Import Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 10-Nov |
9:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 10-Nov |
9:30 |
Trade Balance |
|
| 10-Nov |
15:00 |
Monthly Budget Statement |
|
| 11-Nov |
8:00 |
Veteran’s Day |
|
| 11-Nov |
10:55 |
Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
|
Tags: Economy Growth, Jobs, Omaha
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, October 31st, 2011
Sales of new homes rose in September after four straight monthly declines.
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales of new homes rose 5.7 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 313,000 homes. A big reason for the gain was that the median sales price fell 3.1 percent to $204,400. This is a great indicator that builders have identified that there is good demand in the first time home buyer segment. The number of new homes on the market was also unchanged at 163,000, a record low.
Home builders started projects in September at the fastest pace in 17 months, a hopeful sign for the economy. But most of the gain was driven by a surge in volatile apartment construction, a sign that many are choosing to rent rather than own a home.
Single-family home construction, which represents nearly 70 percent of homes built, rose slightly. March through August is typically the peak buying season, so an increase like this after the busy season is encouraging for the overall housing market.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +5 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which moved mortgage rates sideways. We were trading better (lower rates) in the beginning of the week but reversed course and MBS moved lower (higher rates) after the parameters of the Greek/European debt bailout were released. While it is certainly not a perfect plan, it did remove some uncertainty in the market place. This uncertainty was helping to keep mortgage rates lower because investors parked their funds in bonds until they found out what the actual plan for Europe was. Now that they know the plan, they have sold out of their positions in bonds and as a result rates have been pressured higher.
It is important to note that since the lowest rates on record (09/22/11) mortgage backed securities have dropped -281 basis points which have pushed mortgage rates higher. You are not going to see those great rates again. Rates will still be very attractive for awhile but they are trending upward.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
|
| 31-Oct |
9:45 |
Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index |
|
| 1-Nov |
10:00 |
Construction Spending (MoM) |
|
| 1-Nov |
10:00 |
ISM Manufacturing |
|
| 1-Nov |
10:00 |
ISM Prices Paid |
|
| 1-Nov |
17:00 |
Total Vehicle Sales |
|
| 2-Nov |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 2-Nov |
8:15 |
ADP Employment Change |
|
| 2-Nov |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 2-Nov |
12:30 |
Fed Interest Rate Decision |
|
| 2-Nov |
12:30 |
FOMC Minutes |
|
| 2-Nov |
14:15 |
Fed’s Press Conference |
|
| 3-Nov |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 3-Nov |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 3-Nov |
8:30 |
Nonfarm Productivity |
|
| 3-Nov |
8:30 |
Unit Labor Costs |
|
| 3-Nov |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
|
| 3-Nov |
10:00 |
ISM Non-Manufacturing |
|
| 4-Nov |
8:30 |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
|
| 4-Nov |
8:30 |
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) |
|
| 4-Nov |
8:30 |
Average Weekly Hours |
|
| 4-Nov |
8:30 |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
|
| 4-Nov |
8:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
|
Tags: Homes, NE, Omaha
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, October 17th, 2011
Headline Retail Sales for September increased at a rate of 1.1% which more than doubled market forecasts of 0.5%. The Core Retail Sales (this excludes autos) also increased more than expected. It came in at 0.6% which was three times better than the market forecasts of 0.2%.
This is very important for the housing market because housing demand is very closely tied to consumer confidence. This brings up a very interesting point. Various consumer sentiment and consumer confidence reports have shown a recent dip in their readings. So, consumers are telling the survey takers that they feel less positive about the economy and that they are less willing to spend money. But those reports are based upon surveys.
Retail Sales are based upon real and actual sales. And clearly, consumers are spending more which means their economic outlook is positive and that is always a positive for the housing market.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -75 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which moved mortgage rates upward and landed mortgage rates at their highest levels in three weeks.
This was in reaction to a slew of much better than expected U.S. economic data. One of the main reasons that mortgage rates are so low (we hit our historical low on 09/22/11) is due to concern over a perceived weak economic recovery. So, when the market sees data that is better than expected (and even shows economic growth), MBS sell off which causes mortgage rates to rise. We received much better than expected Retail Sales. MBS also pulled back (higher rates) as the European Union appeared to have some less-negative news. This is important because their is certainly a “flight to safety” premium in all bonds due the concerns over the Eurozone and that has been a major factor in pushing mortgage rates lower. So, the less-negative news hurt mortgage rates.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
|
| 17-Oct |
8:30 |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
|
| 17-Oct |
9:15 |
Capacity Utilization |
|
| 17-Oct |
9:15 |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
|
| 18-Oct |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 18-Oct |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 18-Oct |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) |
|
| 18-Oct |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) |
|
| 18-Oct |
9:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC Flows |
|
| 18-Oct |
9:00 |
Total Net TIC Flows |
|
| 18-Oct |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
|
| 18-Oct |
13:15 |
Fed’s Bernanke Speech |
|
| 19-Oct |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 19-Oct |
8:30 |
Building Permits (MoM) |
|
| 19-Oct |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 19-Oct |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 19-Oct |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) |
|
| 19-Oct |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) |
|
| 19-Oct |
8:30 |
Housing Starts (MoM) |
|
| 19-Oct |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 19-Oct |
14:00 |
Fed’s Beige Book |
|
| 19-Oct |
19:30 |
Fed’s Lacker speech |
|
| 20-Oct |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 20-Oct |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 20-Oct |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales (MoM) |
|
| 20-Oct |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales Change |
|
| 20-Oct |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators (MoM) |
|
| 20-Oct |
10:00 |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey |
|
| 20-Oct |
10:15 |
Fed’s Bullard speech |
|
| 21-Oct |
13:00 |
Fed Narayana Kocherlakota |
|
Tags: Consumer, NE, Omaha, Retail
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, October 10th, 2011
While unemployment levels will continue to be a major concern and a drag on our economy, several reports showed some improvement last week. This is the single biggest factor in housing. Regardless of interest rates – people simply don’t purchase homes when they are unemployed or are concerned about their employment picture. This is why the following data is welcome news for the housing industry.
The headline unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1%, however economists are focusing on the improvement in the non-farm payroll data.
Non-farm Payrolls jumped up to 103K in September, from the revised previous month’s result of 57K, the U.S. Department of Labor reported. The results considerably exceeded forecasts of 73K growth. The change in total non-farm Payroll employment for July was also revised upward from 85K to 127K.
Average Hourly Earnings increased to 0.2% in September, following a 0.2% drop in August. On an annual basis Average Hourly Earnings remained flat at 1.9% for the second consecutive month in September.
Average Weekly Hours increased to 34.3 in September from 34.2 in August, despite forecasts of remaining at the same level.
In a separate report, the ADP Private Payroll data which measures U.S. non-farm private business sector hirings increased by 91K in September, after rising 89K in August. This was higher than market forecasts of only a 75K increase.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -130 basis points from last Friday to the prior Friday which moved mortgage rates upward. This was in reaction to a slew of much better than expected U.S. economic data. One of the main reasons that mortgage rates are so low (we hit our historical low on 09/22/11) is due to concern over a perceived weak economic recovery. So, when the market sees data that is better than expected (and even shows economic growth), MBS sell off which causes mortgage rates to rise. We received much better than expected news out of both the manufacturing and servicing sectors with strong ISM data. The improvement in the non-farm and private payroll data also pressured MBS.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
|
| 9-Oct |
20:00 |
Columbus Day |
|
| 11-Oct |
10:00 |
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) |
|
| 11-Oct |
14:00 |
FOMC Minutes |
|
| 12-Oct |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 13-Oct |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 13-Oct |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 13-Oct |
8:30 |
Trade Balance |
|
| 13-Oct |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 13-Oct |
14:00 |
Monthly Budget Statement |
|
| 14-Oct |
8:30 |
Export Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 14-Oct |
8:30 |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 14-Oct |
8:30 |
Import Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 14-Oct |
8:30 |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
| 14-Oct |
8:30 |
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) |
|
| 14-Oct |
9:55 |
Consumer Credit |
|
| 14-Oct |
10:00 |
Business Inventories |
|
Tags: Jobs, NE, Omaha, unemployment
Posted in Market Update, Unemployment | No Comments »
Monday, October 3rd, 2011
Pending Home Sales are homes that have a purchase contract in place but have not yet closed. The National Association of Realtors released their data for August and it showed a year-over-year annual improvement of 13.1%.
When comparing August to July, pending home sales slipped but less than market forecasts. Economists expected Pending Home Sales to decrease month-over-month by -1.8%. The actual number was a little better at -1.2%. Hurricane Irene, which battered the Northeast at the end of the month, was likely a factor in the decline.
Three of four regions throughout the United States saw declines in the number of contracts to purchase previously owned homes. The Northeast region experienced the largest loss of 5.8 percent as a result of significant disruption by Hurricane Irene, according to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. Meanwhile, sales in Midwest and West also fell 3.7 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively. In contrast, a 2.6 percent gain in the South helped reduce the total loss of pending home sales in the month.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) were unchanged from last Friday to the prior Friday but we stilled closed down -100 basis points from our best pricing levels in history on 09/22/11.
We had a very volatile week where mortgage rates escalated Monday through Wednesday and then rebounded by Friday.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
|
| 3-Oct |
10:00 |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
|
| 3-Oct |
10:00 |
Construction Spending |
|
| 3-Oct |
6:00 |
Fed’s Lackert Speaks |
|
| 4-Oct |
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
|
| 4-Oct |
10:00 |
Bernake Speaks |
|
| 5-Oct |
7:30 |
Challenger Job Cuts |
|
| 5-Oct |
8:15 |
ADP Private Payroll Report |
|
| 5-Oct |
10:00 |
ISM Servicing Index |
|
| 6-Oct |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 6-Oct |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 7-Oct |
8:30 |
Non-Farm Payrolls |
|
| 7-Oct |
8:30 |
Unemployment Rate |
|
| 7-Oct |
10:00 |
Wholesale Inventories |
|
| 7-Oct |
3:00 |
Consumer Credit |
|
Tags: Home, NE, Omaha, Sales
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, September 26th, 2011
Existing-home sales increased in August, even with ongoing tight credit and appraisal problems, along with regional disruptions created by Hurricane Irene, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Monthly gains were seen in all regions.
Total Existing Home Sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 7.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.03 million in August from an upwardly revised 4.67 million in July, and are 18.6 percent higher than the 4.24 million unit level in August 2010.
Investors accounted for 22 percent of purchase activity in August, up from 18 percent in July and 21 percent in August 2010. First-time buyers purchased 32 percent of homes in August, unchanged from July; they were 31 percent in August 2010.
All-cash sales accounted for 29 percent of transactions in August, unchanged from July; they were 28 percent in August 2010; investors account for the bulk of cash purchases.
Total housing inventory at the end of August fell 3.0 percent to 3.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.5-month supply in July.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained 178 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates much lower from last Friday to the prior Friday. Mortgage rates moved lower in response to the Fed’s announcement that they would move from purchasing shorter term Treasuries to buying longer term Treasuries. They also announced that they would purchase more mortgage backed securities with the principal that they are receiving on their current mortgage backed security holdings. The best interest rates were on Thursday afternoon. On Friday, mortgage rates started to climb back up from their lows.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
|
| 26-Sept |
10:00 |
New Home Sales (MoM) |
|
| 26-Sept |
10:00 |
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) |
|
| 27-Sept |
9:00 |
Consumer Confidence |
|
| 27-Sept |
10:00 |
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
|
| 27-Sept |
10:00 |
Fed’s Lockhart speech |
|
| 27-Sept |
12:30 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 28-Sept |
7:00 |
Durable Goods Orders |
|
| 28-Sept |
8:30 |
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation |
|
| 28-Sept |
8:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 28-Sept |
10:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 29-Sept |
8:30 |
Gross Domestic Product Annualized |
|
| 29-Sept |
8:30 |
Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index |
|
| 29-Sept |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 29-Sept |
8:30 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) |
|
| 29-Sept |
8:30 |
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 29-Sept |
10:00 |
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Prices Index (YoY) |
|
| 30-Sept |
8:30 |
Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 30-Sept |
8:30 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures (MoM) |
|
| 30-Sept |
8:30 |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
|
| 30-Sept |
8:30 |
Personal Income (MoM) |
|
| 30-Sept |
8:30 |
Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index |
|
| 30-Sept |
9:45 |
Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
|
| 30-Sept |
9:55 |
Fed’s Bullard speech |
|
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, September 19th, 2011
Confidence among U.S. consumers rose in September from the lowest level since November 2008 as Americans views of current economic conditions improved.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment climbed to 57.8 this month from 55.7 in August. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a reading of 57. The group’s measure of consumer expectations six months from now dropped to the lowest level since May 1980.
The Michigan survey’s index of current conditions, which reflects Americans perceptions of their financial situation and whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items like cars, increased to 74.5 from 68.7 the prior month.
This is very important to the housing industry because it it not interest rates but the consumer’s outlook on the economy that drives demand for housing.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -68 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates higher from last Friday to the prior Friday. Mortgage rates were pressured due to some inflationary economic news. Both the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index showed increases which is inflationary and mortgage rates do not react well to any inflationary data. We also saw better than expected Consumer Sentiment which is also usually bad for mortgage rates.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
|
| 19-Sept |
10:00 |
NAHB Housing Market Index |
|
| 19-Sept |
10:30 |
Barack Obama Press Conference |
|
| 20-Sept |
8:30 |
Building Permits (MoM) |
|
| 20-Sept |
8:30 |
Housing Starts (MoM) |
|
| 21-Sept |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 21-Sept |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales (MoM) |
|
| 21-Sept |
10:00 |
Existing Home Sales Change |
|
| 21-Sept |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change |
|
| 22-Sept |
14:15 |
Fed Interest Rate Decision |
|
| 22-Sept |
14:15 |
Fed’s Press Conference |
|
| 22-Sept |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 22-Sept |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 22-Sept |
10:00 |
Housing Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 22-Sept |
10:00 |
Leading Indicators (MoM) |
|
Tags: Finances, Homes, NE, Omaha
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Monday, September 12th, 2011
Home prices are seen ticking up modestly in 2012, according to a Reuters poll released on Friday.
Existing home sales are expected to improve modestly. The forecasts from the poll are consistent with expectations the housing sector will continue to limp along in a weakened state for years to come.
A recovery in the housing market is dependent on improvement in the labor market and broader economy, analysts said.
“One of the big concerns is you’ve got a lot of homes where the mortgage holder is still underwater and most of those homeowners will continue to make payments,” said Brown.
“It gets to be a problem, however, if somebody loses their job, somebody gets sick, there’s a divorce or something where the home has to be sold.”
U.S. home prices — as measured by Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index — will fall 3.8 percent for the year, before stabilizing and gaining 0.8 percent in 2012, according to the median forecast of 22 economists in the Reuters poll taken over the past week.
The expectations were improved from the previous Reuters housing poll in June, which forecast prices would fall 5.0 percent this year and rise just 0.5 percent next year.
The forecasts for the changes in the home price index for this year had a wide range, from a decline of 14.0 percent to a gain of 0.1 percent. The forecasts for 2012 had a smaller gap, from a decline of 6.0 percent to a gain of 4.0 percent.
Of 28 economists polled, 14 said that prices had either already hit bottom this year or would by the fourth quarter. Twelve respondents said prices won’t reach a trough until 2012, while one forecast 2013 and one expected it would take until 2014.
In the third quarter, the pace of existing home sales is expected to come in at a 4.78 million annualized rate and will edge up to 4.95 million in the fourth quarter. Sales of previously owned homes were at an annual rate of 4.67 million units in July, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.
Economists saw the rate of home sales coming in at 5.1 million for both the first and second quarter of next year.
“New foreclosures peaked in 2009, but the inventory of foreclosed homes will decline only slowly,” said David Berson, chief economist at mortgage insurer PMI Group.
Spring buying pushed home prices up for a third straight month in most major U.S. cities in June.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index showed Tuesday that prices increased in June from May in 19 of the 20 cities tracked. Prices rose 3.6 percent in the April-June quarter from the previous quarter. Neither of those numbers is adjusted for seasonal factors.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +15 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates slightly lower from last Friday to the prior Friday. Mortgage rates were pressured mid-week as the Trade Balance and Wholesale Inventory data was better than expected but we rebounded on Friday as the stock market had another triple digit loss amid continued concerns over a potential default by Greece and other European countries.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
|
| 12-Sept |
16:00 |
Fed’s Fisher’s speech |
|
| 13-Sept |
8:30 |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 13-Sept |
8:30 |
Import Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 13-Sept |
10:00 |
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) |
|
| 13-Sept |
14:00 |
Monthly Budget Statement |
|
| 14-Sept |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 14-Sept |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 14-Sept |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 14-Sept |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) |
|
| 14-Sept |
8:30 |
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) |
|
| 14-Sept |
8:30 |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
| 14-Sept |
8:30 |
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) |
|
| 14-Sept |
10:00 |
Business Inventories |
|
| 14-Sept |
10:30 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index (MoM) |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index (YoY) |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
Current Account |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 15-Sept |
8:30 |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
|
| 15-Sept |
9:15 |
Capacity Utilization |
|
| 15-Sept |
9:15 |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
|
| 15-Sept |
10:00 |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey |
|
| 16-Sept |
9:00 |
Net Long-Term TIC Flows |
|
| 16-Sept |
9:00 |
Total Net TIC Flows |
|
| 16-Sept |
9:55 |
Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index |
|
Tags: homeowner, Homes, Nebraska, Omaha
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
Tuesday, September 6th, 2011
Spring buying pushed home prices up for a third straight month in most major U.S. cities in June.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index showed Tuesday that prices increased in June from May in 19 of the 20 cities tracked. Prices rose 3.6 percent in the April-June quarter from the previous quarter. Neither of those numbers is adjusted for seasonal factors.
Chicago, Minneapolis, Washington and Boston posted the biggest monthly increases. Metro areas hit hardest by the housing crisis, including Las Vegas and Phoenix, reported small seasonal increases.
Analysts say home prices have stabilized in coastal cities over the past six months. Seasonally adjusted prices have fallen a modest 1 percent over the past six months, according to the index. That’s less than a third of the decline from the previous six months.
Foreclosures and short sales—when a lender agrees to sell for less than what is owed on a mortgage—made up about 30 percent of all home sales last month, up from about 10 percent in past years. And 1.7 million potential foreclosures are being held up, according to real estate firm CoreLogic, either by backlogged courts or lenders awaiting state and federal probes into troubled foreclosure practices.
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +47 basis points last week which helped to move mortgage rates lower from last Friday to the prior Friday. This more than made up for the prior week’s -40 basis point loss. We actually were on a downward trend for mortgage backed securities (higher mortgage rates) for much of the week after getting much better than expected economic news such as the Chicago PMI, Factory Orders and ISM Manufacturing. But the market reversed course on Friday after the Unemployment report was released. While the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 9.1%, the market reacted very strongly to the data that showed that we created/added exactly zero jobs over the last month. Economists believe that the U.S. needs to add at least 150K new jobs each month to get out of this stand-still.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
| Date |
ET |
Release |
|
| 4-Sept |
20:00 |
Labor Day |
|
| 6-Sept |
10:00 |
ISM Non-Manufacturing |
|
| 6-Sept |
13:10 |
Fed’s President of the Minneapolis speech |
|
| 7-Sept |
7:00 |
MBA Mortgage Applications |
|
| 7-Sept |
14:00 |
Fed’s Beige Book |
|
| 8-Sept |
8:30 |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
|
| 8-Sept |
8:30 |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
| 8-Sept |
8:30 |
Trade Balance |
|
| 8-Sept |
11:00 |
EIA Crude Oil Stocks change |
|
| 8-Sept |
13:00 |
Fed’s Bernanke Speech |
|
| 8-Sept |
15:00 |
Consumer Credit Change |
|
| 9-Sept |
10:00 |
Wholesale Inventories |
|
Tags: Homes, Midwest, NE, Omaha
Posted in Market Update | No Comments »
|
