CoreLogic reported that the number of American homes that are “underwater” fell last quarter. A home is considered “underwater” when the owner owes more on their mortgage(s) than the home’s present value. The data fell from 24% in the first quarter to 23% in the second quarter. While this is not a huge decrease – given the high unemployment levels, any improvement is welcomed. How does our state stack up? Check out the chart below to see:
What Happened to Rates Last Week:
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained +22 basis points last week causing 30 year fixed rates to decrease. MBS reached a new all-time best pricing level on Thursday. After we reached those great levels, we pulled back -53 basis points by Friday. The gains in mortgage backed securities (the only thing 30 year conventional mortgage rates are based on) were primarily the result of continued concerns about a very fragile economy and the perception of an increased probability of a “double-dip” recession. Our huge pull back on Friday (which caused mortgage rates to increase) was due to the release of the revised 2nd QTR GDP numbers. It was revised from 2.4% growth down to only 1.6% growth but the markets expected an even bigger downward correction. Since the data was better than market expectations, MBS sold off causing us to lose the lowest rates we have ever seen.
What to Watch Out For This Week:
The following are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises:
| Date | ET | Release | For |
| 30-Aug | 8:30 | Personal Income | July |
| 30-Aug | 8:30 | Personal Spending | July |
| 30-Aug | 8:30 | PCE Prices – Core | July |
| 31-Aug | 9:00 | Case-Shiller 20-city Index | June |
| 31-Aug | 9:45 | Chicago PMI | Aug |
| 31-Aug | 10:00 | Consumer Confidence | Aug |
| 31-Aug | 14:00 | Minutes of FOMC Meeting | 10-Aug |
| 1-Sept | 8:15 | ADP Employment Change | Aug |
| 1-Sept | 10:00 | Construction Spending | July |
| 1-Sept | 10:00 | ISM Index | Aug |
| 1-Sept | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 28-Aug |
| 1-Sept | 10:00 | Auto Sales | Aug |
| 1-Sept | 14:00 | Truck Sales | Aug |
| 2-Sept | 8:30 | Initial Claims | 28-Aug |
| 2-Sept | 8:30 | Continuing Claims | 21-Aug |
| 2-Sept | 8:30 | Productivity-Rev. | Q2 |
| 2-Sept | 8:30 | Unit Labor Costs | Q2 |
| 2-Sept | 10:00 | Factory Orders | July |
| 2-Sept | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | July |
| 3-Sept | 8:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls | Aug |
| 3-Sept | 8:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls – Private | Aug |
| 3-Sept | 8:30 | Unemployment Rate | Aug |
| 3-Sept | 8:30 | Hourly Earnings | Aug |
| 3-Sept | 8:30 | Average Workweek | Aug |
| 3-Sept | 10:00 | ISM Services | Aug |
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.
Tags: MBS
